Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,811,360$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(1.88 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,795,151.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 49.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,795,151.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $105,165$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,051.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(104,051.5\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,247,964$ on 2020-06-01
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $93,288$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(8.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{94,257.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 51.9)}}\) (asimptote \(94,257.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,404$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(534 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,398.0}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 48.4)}}\) (asimptote \(7,398.0\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,793$ on 2020-06-01
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,837$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(1.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,255.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 54.5)}}\) (asimptote \(14,255.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $344$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(32.8 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{344.9}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 49.3)}}\) (asimptote \(344.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,979$ on 2020-06-01
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $93,435$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(2.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{159,636.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 70.6)}}\) (asimptote \(159,636.0\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,167$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(287 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,887.8}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 60.7)}}\) (asimptote \(16,887.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,303$ on 2020-06-01
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $17,572$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,318.1}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 59.1)}}\) (asimptote \(21,318.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $502$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(83.9 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{493.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(493.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,177$ on 2020-06-01
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,362$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(99 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,763.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 77.0)}}\) (asimptote \(11,763.7\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $217$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(17.4 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{299.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 54.3)}}\) (asimptote \(299.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,596$ on 2020-06-01
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,083$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(423 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,971.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,971.6\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(18.7 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(82.7\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $174$ on 2020-06-01
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,582$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(61.2 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,065.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 62.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,065.7\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $46$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(2.78 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 69.5)}}\) (asimptote \(116.1\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,473$ on 2020-06-01
